Service Plays Wednesday 07/29/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

WEDNESDAY, JULY 29


NATIONAL LEAGUE


L.A. Dodgers (62-38) at St. Louis (55-48)

The Dodgers, who continue to own baseball’s best record, send out red-hot left-hander Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 2.96 ERA) for the third game of a four-game set at Busch Stadium against the Cardinals and Joel Pineiro (9-9, 2.95).

St. Louis continued its domination of the Dodgers with a 10-0 rout on Tuesday, which followed Monday’s 6-1 victory. The Cardinals are now 43-20 in the last 63 meetings with Los Angeles and 26-8 in the last 34 at Busch Stadium. Tony LaRussa’s squad is on additional positive surges of 6-1 at home, 6-1 against the N.L. West and 17-4 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.

L.A. has now lost three in a row and four of its last five. On the bright side, it is still 5-2 in its last seven against the N.L. Central and 10-6 in its last 16 against righty starters.

The Dodgers are 7-1 in Kershaw’s last eight starts, with the lone defeat coming last Friday at home against Florida. In that contest, Kershaw allowed three runs (two earned) on nine hits and three walks in six innings of a 6-3 setback. The southpaw had previously surrendered a total of three earned runs over a seven-start stretch that covered 42 2/3 innings (0.63 ERA), and he wasn’t scored on in five of those contests.

Kershaw is 5-3 with a 4.41 ERA in nine road starts this season, and he’s 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two career starts against St. Louis. L.A. has won five straight road games behind Kershaw and is on further runs behind the lefty of 7-1 against N.L. Central foes and 5-1 against winning teams.

The Cardinals have won four in a row and five of six backing Pineiro, including an 8-1 rout at Philadelphia last Friday, in which the righty threw six shutout innings of four-hit ball, walking just one. Pineiro is 4-1 with a 1.37 ERA over his last six starts, including a pair of complete games.

Pineiro is 4-4 with a 2.40 ERA in eight home starts this season, and he’s won both of his two career starts against Los Angeles, despite a 4.72 ERA. His current 4-1 upswing followed a stretch in which he took the loss in five consecutive starts and eight out of nine.

The Dodgers are on “over” runs of 5-2-1 overall, 10-3 on the road and 12-6 against right-handed starters. On the flip side, the Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 9-4 overall, 20-9 at home (6-1 in their last seven) and 6-1 against the N.L. West, and the total has stayed low in five of Pineiro’s last six starts, including the last three in a row.

Finally, the under has been the play in seven of the last 11 meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (61-39) at Tampa Bay (55-46)

Right-hander Joba Chamberlain (6-2, 3.86 ERA) leads the torrid Yankees into the finale of a three-game set against the A.L. East rival Rays, who will counter with fellow righty Matt Garza (7-7, 3.68) at Tropicana Field.

After getting drubbed 11-4 in Monday’s opener, Tampa Bay came back and evened this series with Tuesday’s 6-2 victory. The Rays are on a lengthy 89-36 streak at home dating to last season and are on further upticks of 6-2 in division play and 20-8 at the Trop against teams with a winning road record.

The Yankees have still won 10 of their last 12 and are on additional surges of 46-22 overall, 9-4 on the road, 7-2 in division play and 16-6 against winning teams.

These rivals have now split 10 meetings this season, but the visitor has won six of the last nine. Also, New York has won four in a row against Garza.

The Yankees are 11-3 in Chamberlain’s last 14 starts, including an 8-3 home rout of Oakland last Friday when the 23-year-old yielded just one run on two hits and three walks over seven innings, striking out six. Chamberlain hasn’t been dealt a loss on the road this year, going 4-0 with a 3.26 ERA in eight outings, though New York is only 4-4 in those contests.

Chamberlain has just one start against Tampa in his eight appearances (0-0, 1.88 ERA), and that was a 4-3 home win on June 7 in which he allowed all three runs on five hits and a walk in six innings, getting a no-decision. New York is 5-1 in Chamberlain’s last six outings overall, but the Yanks are 1-4 behind the righty on the road against opponents with a winning record.

The Rays are 4-2 in Garza’s last six trips to the mound, including 2-0 in the last two. On Friday at Toronto, the 25-year-old pitched a complete-game five-hitter, matching Roy Halladay, who also went nine innings, and Tampa scored twice in the 10th for a 4-2 victory. Tampa Bay is 8-3 in Garza’s last 11 division starts and 6-2 in his last eight home outings.

Garza is 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 10 home outings this year, and he’s 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA in seven career appearances (six starts) against New York. He was opposite Chamberlain in the June 7 contest, allowing one run on four hits and two walks in five innings but got a no-decision in the Rays’ loss.

The under for New York is on runs of 8-3-1 overall and 9-4-1 against A.L. East foes, but otherwise the team is on “over” streaks of 5-1 on the road, 6-3 on artificial turf and 5-1 with Chamberlain on the mound. For Tampa, the under is on stretches of 36-17-1 overall, 10-3 in division play, 24-7-1 against righty starters, 13-3-1 behind Garza and 5-0 with Garza facing a winning team.

Finally the over has hit in six of the last eight Yanks-Rays clashes at Tropicana Field.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

July 29, 2009

The Phillies Cole-cocked the Diamondbacks last night, which enabled formerly ice-cold Hondo to slash his accounts payable to 410 frisches.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will direct his disposable dinero toward Pineiro -- 10 units on the Cardinals.

 

[PokerFace]

Craig's 5 star TWILIGHT MLB WINNER (12-3 RUN)

Posted By: Craig Trapp
Game Date / Time: July 29th, 2009 - 9:40 PM
This is a Guaranteed Pick on the Spread for the Full Game.​

Yesterday had his first losing day since the ALL STAR BREAK going 0-1! But the good news is Craig is still 12-3 since the break and today will add to it with an easy GUARANTEED WINNER. Craig's Twilight Winners are 3-1 this year in MLB and today he will add to his winners!

The Bottom Line

PHI -1.5 (-101): PHI is the hottest team in the NL and today they look to continue there hot streak verse a very bad ARI team. Pretty simple pick here with a very good lineup for PHI and a very young pithcer Happ on the mound. Happ had his firts loss of year and 1st time he did not have a quality start in the last 7 starts. On the road he is 4-0 on the year with a 1.57 ERA. On the other side Petite goes for ARI looking for his first win on year as he is currently 0-5 on the year. Even worse he is 0-4 at home with a ballooning 8.59 ERA. ARI has trouble scoring runs and HAPP will continue his dominance. On the other side ARI can't score runs for the life of them. EASY R/L WINNER! GOOD VALUE TOO! SCORE PHI 8 - ARI 1
​

 

[Yanks]

Mr east

mlb wednesday play of the day


#971 ny yankees @ #972 tampa bay rays 7:05edt

play on #972 tampa bay rays -104 for 3 units

mr east rates his plays from 3-5 units with 5 top

 

[fly73]

Cappers access
Giants(RL)
Tigers

 

[fly73]

Joe wiz Bonus Plays
phil/ariz under
det/tex under
red sox

 

[Yanks]

The Sports Investing Professional - Wednesday

Monday Recap - That was way too close for the price and I'll give the Indians
some credit for being scrappy but the bottom line of course is that we're $650
to the good and moving on to today!!


Todays Play(s) - There is a play today and normally I try to avoid betting
into games where one team is trying to sweep the other because sweeps happen
only about 20% of the time. However, in this case I have to make an exception
because my man....Y. Petit is going for Arizona. He has been better lately but
he is still winless and is facing the best road team in the league with Happ on the
mound who is just plain good. I like this matchup and the price is right.


MLB -Philadelphia Phillies -150[LISTED] Happ / Petit....750.00/ 500.00


May The Ball Bounce Your Way,

The Sports Investing Professional

Record (22-10) + $4,024

 

[cork999]

Tony Weston
WEDNESDAY'S PLAYS 40 Dime Phillies (RL)

Phillies at Diamondbacks
Phillies (Happ) 1 1/2 Runs Over Diamondbacks (Petit)
PHILLIES (RL) - There is absolutely no denying how impressive the Philadelphia Phillies have been over the last month.

Including last night’s 4-3 win the Phillies have gone 19-3 their last 22 games overall and have now won each of their last 5 games on the road. In those five road games, Philadelphia has outscored its opponents by a total of 25-10.

Tonight, the Phillies will get over easily as the Run Line comes through once again for Philadelphia.

Taking the mound for Philly will be J.A. Happ, who has won 2 of his last 3 starts. In both of those wins the Phillies have outscored their opponents by a combined 10-2, winning on average, 5-1. Over his last 5 road starts, the Phillies have outscored their opponents, on average, 5.1-2.8.

Opposite Happ will be the Diamondbacks’ Yusmeiro Petit, who has been absolutely horrible for Arizona this year. In his nine starts this season the Diamondbacks have gone 1-8 and have been outscored by a total of 73-40 and have lost by an average score of 8.1-4.4.

Tonight, things won’t get any better as the Phillies Run Line the Diamondbacks.





BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY MARFA,IRONHORSE AND ME--------------------GL GUYS

 

[cork999]

raig Davis
Wednesday's Lineup
40 Dime ---- GIANTS (With Cain) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over PIRATES (With Duke)

Sometimes you simple can't avoid the writing on the wall. Matt Cain is better than Zach Duke. San Francisco's bullpen is better than Pittsburgh. Without Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh's offense is just one step above San Diego (a small step). San Francisco plays better defense and they're playing at home, coming in off a 3-2 win on Tuesday night.

Today's affair has all the makings of a San Francisco blowout. Everything, and I mean everything, points to the Giants, and that's the reason I'm stepping up my play today. I just love Matt Cain too much NOT to back him, especially when he's pitching at home during the day. Remember, this game is a 1:45 pm local start in San Francisco, and when Cain pitches during the daylight, he's nearly impossible to score on. Cain's numbers during the day are quite impressive in six starts... 4-1 record, 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a .176 opponent's batting average against. These numbers sound eerily similar to what Cain did to the Pirates the last time he faced them in Pittsburgh (just 10 days ago).

Look, I understand Tim Lincecum is still considered the ace of this staff and the face of the franchise, but Matt Cain has been just as consistent and I'm not sure, if I had to pick between them to pitch for me for one game, who I'd pick. Cain has been "that good" this season and should have no problem shutting down a team that hits just .240 against right-handed pitchers and .239 on the road.

San Francisco, on the other hand, hits better in their own backyard (.278) than they do on the road and they would much rather face lefties than righties (.269 vs. .295). Guess what... they get their wish today as 9-game winner (and southpaw) Zach Duke takes the hill for the Pirates, ironically enough, against the same team and pitcher he faced just 10 days ago... Matt Cain and the SF Giants. Cain beat him in Pittsburgh (dominated him statistically) 4-3 and should have no problem doing it to him again this afternoon. Duke has lost four of his last five starts and hasn't allowed less than three earned runs in any of those games. This one might not be pretty, but it'll end in our favor as Cain will dominate the Pirates for at least seven innings and the Giants will roll the Pirates, 8-2.





BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY MARFA,IRONHORSE AND ME--------------------GL GUYS

 

[fly73]

Kikí Sports - 2* Tigers

 

[Anthonyd4]

Lenny Del Genio | MLB Money Line Wed, 07/29/09 - 4:40 PM

bet 970 SEA (+155) SportBet vs 969 TOR
Analysis: Play on Seattle at 4:40 ET. Seattle is our **AFTERNOON** Underdog Shocker.

 

[Yanks]

RatedPicks

MLB:

MLB 07/29 Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles pick: Kansas City Royals pts: -145 3 units
MLB 07/29 Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants pick: San Francisco Giants pts: -1.5 (+155) 3 units
MLB 07/29 Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants pick: San Francisco Giants pts: -155 5 units
MLB 07/29 San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds pick: Cincinnati Reds pts: -1.5 (+135) 3 units
MLB 07/29 San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds pick: Cincinnati Reds pts: -155 3 units
MLB 07/29 LA Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals pick: over pts: 7.5 3 units

Month of July Record: 83 - 65 +51.39units

 

[Yanks]

Dunkel

Today's MLB Picks

LA Dodgers at St. Louis

After dropping the first two games of the series, the Dodgers look to build on their 6-0 record in Clayton Kershaw's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. Los Angeles is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 29

Game 951-952: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Hampton) 16.321; Cubs (Wells) 15.255
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-175); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+165); N/A
Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 13.773; San Francisco (Cain) 14.857
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-155); Under
Game 955-956: Colorado at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 16.095; NY Mets (Santana) 15.475
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+140); Over
Game 957-958: San Diego at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 14.371; Cincinnati (Harang) 13.335
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+140); Under
Game 959-960: Atlanta at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.556; Florida (Johnson) 17.123
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-155); Under
Game 961-962: Washington at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Mock) 13.993; Milwaukee (Parra) 13.843
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-210); 10
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+190); Over
Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.267; St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.126
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+105); Under
Game 965-966: Philadelphia at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 16.054; Arizona (Petit) 16.583
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+145); Under
Game 967-968: Cleveland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Laffey) 15.505; LA Angels (Lackey) 17.359
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-180); Over
Game 969-970: Toronto at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 14.229; Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 14.985
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+165); Over
Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 15.226; Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.458
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Over
Game 973-974: Kansas City at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 15.724; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.554
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-135); Under
Game 975-976: Oakland at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 16.474; Boston (Penny) 15.263
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+170); Over
Game 977-978: Detroit at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.321; Texas (Feldman) 15.195
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Under
Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Contreras) 16.287; Minnesota (Liriano) 15.081
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+140); Over




WNBA Basketball Picks

Los Angeles at Chicago

The Sparks look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games. Los Angeles is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 29

Game 651-652: Los Angeles at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 108.766; Chicago 110.366
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 147 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+3 1/2); Over

 

[cork999]

Jake Timlin
Wednesday's Action
400♦ St. Louis Cardinals

List both Pineiro & Kershaw as starting pitchers or this play is void

Back by 4 PM eastern with analysis.



BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY MARFA,IRONHORSE AND ME----------------GL GUYS

 

[tgunn11]

Doc's Sports

5 Unit Play. #956 Take New York -140 over Colorado (7:10 pm MLB.tv)

3 Unit Play. #978 Take Under 8 ½ in Detroit @ Texas (8:05 pm MLB.tv)

 

[CHIVO]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Play LA Angels (-165) over Cleveland (MLB TOP PLAY)
Los Angeles has won 14 of the last 17 games when their on base percentage is .360 or better over the last 15 games and they have also won 20 of the last 28 day games. John Lackey has won 13 of the last 16 games in the month of July and he has also won 4 of the last 5 day games. John Lackey has an ERA of 3.49 vs. Cleveland over his career and is 3-0 over the last 3 overall starts with an ERA of 1.52.

100* Play Florida (-140) over Atlanta (MLB TOP PLAY)
Florida has won 6 of the last 7 games and they have also won 26 of the last 41 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Josh Johnson has won 15 of the last 17 games vs. division opponents and he has also won 12 of the last 16 games as a favorite of -110 or higher. Josh Johnson has won 8 of the last 10 home games and he is 9-2 in all starts this season with an ERA of 2.80.

50* Play Chicago Cubs (-170) over Houston (MLB BONUS PLAY)
Chicago has won 11 of the last 15 games and they have also won 16 of the last 22 games as a favorite of -150 or higher. Randy Wells has won 5 of the last 6 day games and he has an ERA of 0.00 vs. Houston over his career. Mike Hampton has lost 5 consecutive games as a road underdog of +150 to +200 and he is also 1-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 7.79.

50* Play Philadelphia (-150) over Arizona (MLB BONUS PLAY)
Philadelphia has won 19 of the last 24 games when playing in the month of July and they have also won 13 of the last 17 games as a road favorite of -110 or higher. J.A. Happ has won 4 consecutive games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he is also 7-1 in all games this season with an ERA of 2.97. Arizona has lost 19 of the last 28 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers and Yusmeiro Petit is 0-4 at home this season with an ERA of 8.23.

WNBA BASKETBALL
50* Play Los Angeles (+3.5) over Chicago (WNBA TOP PLAY)
Chicago has lost 12 of the last 15 games against the spread and they have also lost 6 consecutive games against the spread when playing five or less games in the last 14 days. Chicago has lost 10 consecutive games when playing on a Wednesday and they have also lost 5 of the last 6 games vs. Los Angeles.

 

[brady1983]

Indian Cowboy

4 Unit Play.

* Take Under 9.5 between the Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Wednesday @ 9:40pm est).*

I think we've found a solid situation for the Under here.* J.A. Happ is a solid pitcher for the Phillies and he has produced some sound numbers for them as he is 7-1 with a 2.97era this year.* Heck, that's stellar. He comes off getting roughed up in his last start as he gave up 5 runs on 10 hits to the Cards in Philadelphia as the Phillies lost 1-8.* Obviously, he took the loss hard as prior to that loss he had pitched 6 straight quality starts.* Hence, he is clearly on the bounce-back this evening.* Tack that on with the fact Petit gave up 6 runs in less than 5 innings in his last effort, he too is on the bounce-back.* Petit realizes that he has to shape up and shape up quick as the Dbacks are going to start rummaging through their pitching core and likely will make several changes in the off-season. In short, if he doesn't get his act together now, they will start bringing up some talent from the minors.* I look for Happ to have a stellar game and I look for Petit to likely pitch 5 innings and give up 3 runs as this game likely ends around 5-3. The under is 5-0 in Happ's last five starts, the Under is 4-0 when Happ is a favorite and the Under is 6-1 when Petit starts as an Underdog of this margin

.4 Unit Play.

Take Under 145 between the LA Sparks @ Chicago Sky (Wednesday @ 8pm est).

I have been writing about the Sparks for some time and how they are showing improvement with the return of Candace Parker.* She comes off her first double-double performance of the year with 10 points and 12 boards, but she gives the Sparks a defensive intensity and presence which is the most important thing.* I expect her to do very well today once again but more importantly, I expect the Sparks to start to re-establish themselves on the defensive end.* This team had already been playing great defense prior to her joining the team and now her presence only aids that.* The Sparks are a more half-court and deliberate team than in the past.* I look for them to take control of this game, likely win this outright, but given that Chicago can struggle against defensive teams (i.e. against Indiana at home losing 54-83), I believe the Sky will be held in check today. This is the only wnba game on tap today and the public will likely continue to raise this total as they love to play overs more in general than unders.* So, if you can wait on this line, do so. The Under is 8-1 when the Sparks play the Eastern conference and the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams.

 

[Yanks]

TONY BRUNO WINS

20X CINN. (19-8) last 27picks

 

[Born2Booze]

Charlie

mlb. pittsburgh @ san francisco under 7' runs & cincinnati-150 ( 500* 2 team parlay).
mlb. cards-115 (30*)
mlb. san diego @ cincinnati under 8 runs (20*)
mlb. atlanta+145 (20*)
mlb. detroit-125 (10*)

mlb. mets-150 (10*) Bonus Play